Regional Dynamics in the Middle East: Iran-UAE Relations and American-Israeli Strategic Engagement

Abstract

This paper examines the changing regional relationship between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) against the wider security environment created by the United States' military presence in the Gulf and the UAE's expanding strategic relationship with Israel. The study treats the Iran-UAE relationship not as an isolated bilateral dispute but as part of a wider regional security system in which territorial disagreements, competing threat perceptions, military partnerships, and external power involvement interact. Particular attention is given to the Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026 and to the UAE's political and security response. The paper also considers the significance of American defence cooperation, the UAE-Israel relationship, and the resulting perceptions of deterrence and vulnerability in the Gulf. A qualitative case-study approach is used, drawing on scholarly literature, official statements, and credible contemporary reporting. The analysis is guided by Realism, which helps explain why states respond to perceived threats by strengthening military capabilities, forming partnerships, and attempting to improve their strategic position. The study argues that the recent escalation cannot be understood solely through Iran-UAE bilateral relations. It reflects a broader interaction between regional competition and external strategic engagement. The paper concludes that stronger defence partnerships may enhance short-term deterrence for the UAE, but they can also deepen threat perceptions in Tehran and contribute to a security dilemma. Sustainable regional stability therefore requires military preparedness to be accompanied by diplomatic channels, confidence-building measures, and mechanisms for such crisis management.